The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Utah’s non-agricultural employment growth continues to impress. The addition of 49,500 jobs over the past 12 months represents a solid growth rate of 2.8%. We did see some fairly modest slowing in employment gains earlier in the year, but this appears to have been reversed. My current forecast is for the state to continue to grow its job base, though I anticipate modest slowing in the number of new jobs. With around 41,700 new positions added, we will see employment grow 2.6% in 2020. In November, the state unemployment rate was 2.4%, down from 3.2% a year ago.

HOME SALES

• 8,768 homes sold in the final quarter of 2019, representing a solid increase of 7% compared to the same period in 2018, but 17% fewer homes traded hands compared to the third quarter of 2019.
• Total sales activity rose in all but the very small Morgan County. Year-over-year, sales rose by double digits in three counties, with impressive increases in Wasatch, Summit, and Utah counties.
• The number of homes for sale in the final quarter of the year was 14.4% lower than in the same period a year ago and 21.3% lower than the third quarter of 2019. Regular readers may remember that listing activity had been rising, but I am afraid those days are behind us.
• Pending sales in the fourth quarter were up 10.7% compared to a year ago but were 24.3% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2020 may drop from current levels.

HOME PRICES

• The average home price in the region continued to rise in the fourth quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 9.5% to an average of $403,186. Home prices were 0.4% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.
• All counties contained in this report saw price increases compared to the same period a year ago, with impressive gains across the board.
• Appreciation was strongest in Wasatch County, where prices were up 11.7% to $681,300.
• Home prices continue to appreciate at significant rates. I hope to see some slowing in price growth as we move through 2020, but this will only happen if the supply of homes for sale grows significantly.

DAYS ON MARKET

• The average number of days it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose four days compared to a year ago.
• Matching the third quarter, homes sold fastest in Davis, Salt Lake, and Weber counties, and slowest in the expensive Summit County. All counties except Summit saw days-on-market rise compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
• During the fourth quarter of the year, it took an average of 57 days to sell a home in the region, up from 45 days in third quarter.
• The modest increase in market time is not a concern as there still appears to be significant demand for housing.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the final quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle just a little more in favor of sellers. Inventory levels remain low, even in the face of modestly increasing market time. Prices and closed sales are higher, and these things certainly favor sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Utah’s non-agricultural employment rose by 42,600 jobs over the past 12 months, representing a solid growth rate of 2.8%. For perspective, the U.S. growth rate is 1.5%. It is appropriate to note that the pace of growth has started to slow and that this is likely to continue given the maturity of the economic cycle. That said, I anticipate the state will see job growth of around 3% in 2019.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%, marginally below the 3.1% level seen a year ago.

HOME SALES

• 10,131 homes sold in the second quarter of 2019, representing an increase of 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018.
• Total sales activity rose in four counties contained in this report and fell in three, though the contraction was relatively small in the markets that historically see fewer sales.
• The number of homes for sale in the second quarter was 22.2% higher than in the same period a year ago and was 18.9% higher than the first quarter of the year. There continues to be significantly more choice in the market, which must be pleasing to home buyers.
• Pending sales in the second quarter were up 10.4% compared to a year ago, suggesting that closings in the third quarter are likely to be an improvement over the current numbers.

HOME PRICES

• The average home price in the region continued to rise in the second quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 6.1% to an average of $391,914.
• All but Summit County saw price increases compared to the same period a year ago. The drop in prices in Summit County was significant but, because it is a small and expensive area, I am not overly concerned this represents a pervasive trend.
• Appreciation was strongest in Weber County. Prices there rose 16.2% to $297,000. As the most affordable market in the area, this is not surprising.
• The takeaway here is that home prices continue to appreciate at quite significant rates. I expect to see some moderation in price growth, but the region will continue to outperform the nation as a whole.

DAYS ON MARKET

• The average number of days it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 13 days compared to the second quarter of 2018.
• Homes sold fastest in Davis and Salt Lake counties and slowest in the pricey Summit County. All counties saw days-on-market rise compared to the second quarter of 2018.
• During the second quarter of this year, it took an average of 53 days to sell a home in the region, down from the 65 days it took in the first quarter.
• The regional economy continues to outperform the U.S. as a whole, and this continues to drive housing demand. Inventory levels have risen, and this gives buyers more choice, which will lead to market time rising.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2019, I have left the needle at the same position as last quarter. While inventory levels are rising, this year will be another good one for home sellers. Furthermore, mortgage rates remain quite low which will result in home prices continuing to rise.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Utah’s economy continues to outperform the country with the addition of 43,700 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, representing a growth rate of 3.1% that is very solid compared to the U.S. rate of 1.7%. However, growth has started to slow — albeit modestly — and this is likely to continue given the maturity of the economic cycle. That said, I anticipate the state will continue to see job growth north of 3% in 2019.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3%, marginally below the 3.1% level a year ago.

HOME SALES

• 6,492 homes sold in the first quarter of 2019, representing a drop of 10.1% from the same period in 2018, and down 18.7% from the final quarter of 2018.
• Total sales activity dropped in all counties contained in this report except for Summit County, which saw sales rise by a modest 3.8%.
• The number of homes for sale in first quarter rose by a very significant 37.3% compared to the same period a year ago, but was 18% lower than the fourth quarter of 2018. There is significantly more choice in the market today than we’ve seen in many years, and this should bring relief to many home buyers.
• Pending sales in the first quarter were a mixed bag. Improvements were seen in Utah, Summit, Morgan, and Davis counties, but there were drops in Weber, Salt Lake, and Wasatch. This suggests that closings in the second quarter will be an improvement over current numbers.

HOME PRICES

• The average home price in the region continued to rise in the first quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7% to $366,509.
• Weber and three other counties saw decent price increases compared to a year ago. Home prices dropped the most in Morgan County, but it’s important to remember that small counties such as Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit are subject to significant swings in value.
• Appreciation was strongest in Weber County, where prices rose by 11.7% to $266,333. As the most affordable market in the area, this is not very surprising.
• The takeaway here is that home prices continue to appreciate, but the rate of growth is starting to taper. This trend is likely to continue as we move through the balance of 2019.

DAYS ON MARKET

• The average number of days it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 16 days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
• Homes sold fastest in Davis, Weber, and Salt Lake counties and slowest in Summit County. All counties saw days-on-market rise when compared to the first quarter of 2018.
• During the first quarter of this year, it took an average of 65 days to sell a home in the region.
• The regional economy is still performing very well, and this will continue to drive housing demand. That said, inventory levels are on the rise and this gives buyers more choice and less urgency, which will lead to an increase in days on market.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle very slightly toward buyers, though it clearly remains a sellers’ market. 2019 is very likely to be another good year for home sellers, but I expect home-price growth to continue to moderate.

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.